Sberbank has noted a mass exodus of businesses from Russia

Analysts at Sberbank’s Center for Macroeconomic Research have identified the first full-fledged “demographic crisis” in Russian entrepreneurship. While company liquidations were previously largely a formality (cleaning up the registries of shell companies), in 2026, mass business closures are occurring for purely economic reasons.

According to Sberbank, the number of voluntary monthly closures of legal entities has risen from 5,000 to 12,000–15,000. In contrast, new business registrations have fallen to a record low: only 62,000 enterprises were registered from January through May, compared to 80,000 during the same period last year. The hardest-hit sectors were retail, construction, and manufacturing, where small and medium-sized businesses are traditionally concentrated.

The main factors behind the mass liquidation of companies were the Russian Central Bank’s tight monetary policy with a high base rate, a sharp decline in GDP growth (which approached zero), and yet another increase in the tax burden. In particular, a significant reduction in the revenue threshold for VAT payments forced nearly one-third of small businesses to consider ceasing operations or selling their assets.

Russian analysts have revised their forecast for the country’s economy downward: they expect higher inflation, slower GDP growth, and lower oil prices; according to new estimates, Russia will not be able to return to its 4% inflation target until 2029. 

After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is facing a sudden slowdown—war costs, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh on an economy that, until recently, seemed resilient to sanctions.

Russian business is currently in a state of controlled collapse

Consumer lending in Russia has fallen to a six-year low.