The Kremlin Fears Elections Due to Declining Support for the War in Russia
The Kremlin is increasingly concerned about the domestic political situation ahead of the elections to the Russian State Duma. According to an assessment by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Russians are growing increasingly weary of the war, and the authorities are trying to prevent public discontent from turning into political protests.
Even Kremlin-controlled opinion polls show that only 15–24% of Russians support continuing the war, while 64–67% favor peace negotiations. The Foreign Intelligence Service notes that, given the atmosphere of fear, the actual level of support for the war may be even lower.
The intelligence agency believes that this is precisely why the Kremlin is purging the political arena as thoroughly as possible. Only candidates loyal to the government are allowed to participate in the elections. The report cites the detention of Boris Nadezhdin as an example; following the 2024 presidential campaign, he was barred from participating in the current election campaign as well.
According to the SBR’s assessment, the Russian authorities fear not individual politicians, but any possibility that public discontent might take on a political form. This is precisely why the repressions are taking on a preventive character.
At the same time, according to Ukrainian intelligence, signs of dissent with the current course are also emerging within the Russian elite. Some members of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle are reportedly advocating for ways to end the war, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation acknowledges that maintaining financial stability while simultaneously financing military operations is becoming increasingly difficult. In addition, according to the SBU, some Russian oligarchs are establishing separate contacts with Ukraine.
The report also notes that Russia is facing growing problems in the military sphere. In particular, oil refineries are coming under regular attack, the Russian navy is suffering losses, and the temporarily occupied Crimea is becoming an increasingly isolated territory following a series of attacks.
The Foreign Intelligence Service believes that hundreds of thousands of war veterans who have not received the promised benefits, jobs, and social status could become an additional risk factor. If their frustration coincides with general discontent in society, the State Duma elections in September 2026 could become a catalyst for an internal political crisis in Russia.
This was reported with reference to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
The Kremlin commented on Fedorov’s resignation and issued a new statement.
The Kremlin has begun actively preparing the population for a new wave of mobilization, according to the Center for Political and Military Analysis (CPMA).
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russia is preparing a new wave of mobilization involving at least tens of thousands of people. According to him, the situation was discussed during a detailed meeting on defense issues. The head of state also heard reports from Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi and Chief of the General Staff Andriy Hnatov.
Russia may announce another mobilization this fall amid the difficult situation on the Ukrainian front, the failure of the winter-spring offensive, and significant losses. This was stated by State Duma Deputy Andrei Gurulov, who linked the possible decision to Russia’s military setbacks in the war against Ukraine.
