Politico explained why Crimea is becoming the Kremlin's main problem
Occupied Crimea, which Russia has long regarded as its main military stronghold, is increasingly becoming one of the Kremlin’s most vulnerable points. Politico believes that the situation surrounding the peninsula could significantly influence the further course of the war and future negotiations.
Occupied Crimea, which after its annexation in 2014 became a symbol of the Kremlin’s geopolitical ambitions and an important military stronghold, is gradually turning into one of Russia’s weakest links. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of the Politico article as they analyzed the situation on the peninsula. The journalists note that life in occupied Crimea has been growing increasingly difficult in recent times. Local residents are facing power and water outages, fuel shortages, unstable cell service, and transportation difficulties. Against this backdrop, prices are rising, and the tourist season—which was one of the region’s main sources of income—is effectively under threat.
The publication emphasizes that Ukrainian strikes on military and energy facilities are having a significant impact on the situation. Using drones, Ukraine is increasingly targeting logistics hubs and infrastructure, making it more difficult for Russia to supply its troops on the peninsula. “Ukrainian drone strikes on energy and military infrastructure have significantly disrupted Russian logistics on the peninsula,” Politico notes.
In addition, transportation links are becoming increasingly problematic. Due to attacks on logistics routes and restrictions on safe movement, Russia is forced to expend more resources to support its military forces in Crimea. The authors of the article note that it was precisely after the occupation of Crimea in 2014 that Russia began actively transforming the peninsula into a powerful military base. During the full-scale invasion in 2022, Crimea became one of the main supply hubs for Russian troops on the southern front.
However, the situation is gradually changing. According to the journalists, the development of Ukrainian medium-range strike drones is making it increasingly effective to target Russian military facilities, warehouses, and transportation infrastructure. Politico believes this could force the Kremlin to redeploy additional forces to defend Crimea. In that case, Russia would have to weaken other sections of the front, which could impact its offensive capabilities.
The publication pays particular attention to the peninsula’s political significance for Vladimir Putin. It was precisely after the annexation of Crimea that his popularity in Russia surged, and the peninsula itself became one of the main symbols of Kremlin policy.
Therefore, as the authors of the article note, any weakening of Russian control over Crimea could have consequences not only on the battlefield but also within Russia itself. Ilya Pavlenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, called Crimea the “golden key” to the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions. “The return of Crimea cannot be an exclusively military task and requires a combination of diplomatic, political, economic, and military tools,” he emphasized.
According to Pavlenko, the current military pressure is intended to create conditions for future negotiations, during which the issue of Crimea will remain one of the central topics.
At the same time, experts warn that even if events unfold favorably, the de-occupation of the peninsula is unlikely to happen quickly. Andriy Zagorodnyuk, head of the Center for Defense Strategies, is convinced that the return of Crimea is possible, but the process will be complex and time-consuming. Thus, according to Politico, Crimea is gradually transforming from a symbol of Russian power into a factor that could determine the further course of the war and become one of the key issues in a future settlement. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of the Politico article.
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