Ukraine is laying the groundwork for a counteroffensive by isolating Crimea
Ukraine is systematically targeting Russian logistics in occupied Crimea and in the south to weaken the Russian military ahead of possible offensive operations. This is the assessment of the situation provided by the American publication *Foreign Policy*, citing Ukrainian and Western experts.
Ukraine’s campaign to destroy Russian military logistics in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine may be preparation for a future counteroffensive. This is the conclusion reached by Foreign Policy journalist Paul Gokenos, who analyzed the latest strikes by Ukrainian forces on key supply routes used by the occupying forces. The article notes that since April, Ukraine has been actively attacking Russia’s logistical infrastructure. Fuel tankers, warehouses, transport routes, and the ferry crossing across the Kerch Strait have all come under attack. All of this is gradually complicating the supply of Russian troops in the occupied territories.
According to the publication, the effects of this campaign are already noticeable. Shortages of fuel and ammunition are being reported in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. This is creating serious difficulties in supplying Russian units. Serhiy Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, believes that the main goal of such strikes is to weaken Russian military logistics as much as possible. “Ukraine’s cessation of fuel supplies to the southern front is paralyzing Russian military logistics and isolating Russian forces,” he explained.
According to the expert, due to logistical problems, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Russian army to rotate personnel, evacuate the wounded, and deliver ammunition and equipment. All of this is gradually reducing the combat effectiveness of troops on the southern front. Foreign Policy also noted that back in May, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced a strategy known as the “logistical lockdown.” Its main goal is to isolate occupied Crimea as much as possible from mainland Russia and cut off Russian troops’ steady supply lines.
Earlier, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Ukraine aims to cut off all major supply routes to the peninsula and destroy critical infrastructure. George Barros, an American analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, believes that Ukraine is not rushing into active offensive operations at this time, but is first and foremost creating the most favorable conditions for them. “Ukraine is shaping the battlefield,” the expert said.
According to him, the Ukrainian military is gradually wearing down Russian forces, reducing their defensive capabilities, and forcing them to expend additional resources. Only then can large-scale offensive operations begin. Kuzan also noted that the campaign has not only military but also political significance. “We know that larger contingents of FSB personnel are stationed in Crimea, presumably to combat public discontent,” he noted.
According to the expert, Russia has already been forced to deploy additional units to Crimea and to strengthen its air defenses to protect supply routes and military facilities. The Foreign Policy author concludes that the sustained pressure on Crimea serves several purposes. First, it complicates the resupply of Russian troops across the entire southern front. Second, it demonstrates that even after many years of occupation, Russia cannot guarantee the peninsula’s security—a promise the Kremlin made after its seizure in 2014.
At the same time, the publication emphasizes that these are specifically the assessments of a journalist and military experts. Ukrainian authorities have not officially announced any specific timelines or plans for a possible future counteroffensive. This is reported by Foreign Policy journalist Paul Gokenos.
In the temporarily occupied Crimea, water rationing schedules have begun to be implemented due to power outages. Armiansk and surrounding settlements were the first to be affected by the restrictions, but similar problems are already being reported in other areas of the peninsula.
