Crisis in Russia’s alcohol market: population turning to surrogates — Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service
The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) reports a deep crisis in Russia’s consumer market. The decline in legal alcohol sales, which Kremlin propaganda tries to present as a “nation-wide health improvement,” is in fact a result of widespread impoverishment and the population turning to dangerous surrogate products.
According to SZRU, official alcohol sales in Russia fell by 9.3% in 2025, and many specialised alcohol retail chains began closing en masse.
Data from Rosalkogoltobakkontrol shows a sharp drop in both legal production of spirits and retail sales of strong alcoholic drinks.
“However, this does not indicate that Russians are giving up alcohol. The decline occurs primarily in the legal segment, while consumers are moving into the shadow market. Home distilling is becoming increasingly common, replacing official retail. There are around 2.5 million home distillation units in Russia, and the annual volume of homemade spirits could reach 200 million litres, a significant portion of which is sold illegally. This demonstrates the state’s loss of control over part of the consumer market,” SZRU notes.
The situation has been worsened by a sharp rise in excise taxes: at the beginning of 2026, rates increased by 8.9–31%, with the highest rises in the wine sector. Against the backdrop of declining household incomes and economic downturn, this further drives the shadowisation of the market.
SZRU predicts that in 2026, legal alcohol sales in Russia could fall by another 9–10%, which is hardly a sign of social “health improvement.”
