The war in Ukraine will continue for a long time — German expert
Russia’s war against Ukraine will drag on for a long time due to the aggressor’s vast resources and risks escalating into an endless confrontation between robotic systems.
This pessimistic forecast was shared with Bild by Matthias Ul, a renowned expert on Russia and historian.
Currently, neither side has the capacity to make large-scale breakthroughs on the front lines, so hostilities will continue in their current form.
The expert emphasized that the current phase of hostilities demonstrates a steady trend toward the stabilization of the line of contact.
Both countries continue to deploy significant amounts of weaponry, hoping to turn the tide in their favor in the long term.
“For now, the war of attrition will continue,” he said.
The expert noted that there are numerous historical examples where wars dragged on for years, despite exhaustion and signs of peace, because both sides believed in inevitable victory.
According to him, in Russia’s war against Ukraine, one of the sides may also “realize too late that the end is near.”
Modern technology has radically changed combat tactics, preventing both armies from maneuvering quickly.
The widespread use of drones makes any movement of equipment visible to the enemy.
“At present, it seems there are no effective countermeasures against the overwhelming force of drones. They will first need to be destroyed on the battlefield before another successful offensive becomes possible. Due to the high costs, only lasers or machine guns will remain viable options,” said Ul.
The aggressor country’s economic system proved more resilient to external pressure than Kyiv’s international partners had anticipated.
Moscow quickly retooled its industry for military production and found workarounds for importing critical components.
The expert asserts that Russia is still capable of waging war thanks to its resources. Although there are economic problems and sanctions, the systemic collapse that the West had anticipated has not occurred.
The Kremlin also retains significant capacity to replenish the ranks of its occupation forces, using various administrative and financial levers of influence.
The expert also believes that in the event of a potential decline in the number of volunteers lured by large sums of money, Moscow will use other means to recruit personnel for the front lines.
A further partial mobilization or even a rebranding of the “special military operation” as an “anti-terrorist operation” is possible.
At the same time, the Defense Forces face serious challenges in manning their units, which limits their offensive capabilities.
In his view, Ukraine is at a disadvantage in terms of human resources, and “a shortage of soldiers, especially infantry, will most likely become a serious problem.”
The expert notes that Kyiv currently lacks the manpower for larger-scale offensive operations, and the country remains dependent on Western weapons and intelligence.
Zelenskyy reported heavy civilian casualties from Russian attacks over the past week
On May 16, Russian occupation forces carried out massive shelling of the Kherson region, resulting in one death and 15 civilians sustaining injuries of varying severity.
On the night of May 17, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down and neutralized 279 enemy drones out of 287 launched by Russian military units.
A 25-year-old woman was injured as a result of an enemy drone strike on a gas station in the Zaporizhzhia district.
