British intelligence assessed the Russian Federation's display of weakness in Moscow on May 9
British intelligence analyzed the military parade in Moscow that took place on May 9 and concluded that it indicates a depletion of Russia’s military resources. Analysts also noted the heightened security measures and restrictions during the event, which, in their view, may point to growing concerns within the Kremlin regarding potential attacks by Ukrainian drones.
The UK Ministry of Defense reported this on social media platform X, citing intelligence sources.
The parade on Red Square in Moscow became the subject of a separate analysis by British intelligence agencies against the backdrop of the war against Ukraine.
British intelligence assessed that the May 9 parade in the Russian capital took place in a subdued atmosphere compared to previous years. The Russian authorities cited the “current operational situation” as the official reason for the absence of armored vehicles and missile systems.
“The scaled-back nature of the parade is likely linked to the threat posed by Ukrainian drones and a shortage of military equipment due to the war in Ukraine,” British intelligence analysts believe.
They also noted a significant decrease in the number of foreign guests at the parade. This year, only five leaders of internationally recognized states attended, whereas in 2005 the event was attended by over 50 heads of state, in 2015 by about 30, and in 2025 by 27. No leader of a major world power participated in the events in Moscow this year.
In addition, on the eve of the parade in Moscow, widespread disruptions in mobile internet service were reported, which, according to British intelligence, were part of measures to counter drone attacks. The report notes that the outages also significantly impacted economic activity in the Russian capital.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speech, as noted by British intelligence, contained the Kremlin’s traditional propaganda talking points about a “just struggle against NATO” and promises of “inevitable victory,” despite the fact that the war in Ukraine has been ongoing for over four years.
Scaled-down celebrations were also observed in other Russian cities. In some regions, military parades were effectively replaced by a march of preschool-aged children in military uniforms.
“It is quite likely that the subdued nature of the parade creates the impression of weakness on the part of the aging leadership, which is unsure how to adequately counter the threat posed by Ukrainian drones,” the report states.
British intelligence also suggests that the dismissal of Viktor Afzalov, Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, a few days before the parade was linked to the Aerospace Forces’ inability to counter the drone threat.
As reported by Ukrinform, the Victory Day parade on Red Square in Moscow, which took place on the morning of May 9, lasted about 45 minutes and was one of the shortest in the modern history of the Russian Federation.
The parade took place without military equipment amid a shutdown of mobile internet in Moscow due to the threat of drone attacks.
Along with Putin, the parade was watched by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith, King Ibrahim Ismail of Malaysia, and self-proclaimed Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also arrived in Moscow, but he did not attend the parade, limiting himself to laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Alexander Garden.
The May 9 parade in Moscowwill be the most modest in Russian history, according to CNN.
As a reminder, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed an agreement on a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The parties also agreed to a large-scale prisoner exchange mediated by the U.S.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a decree excluding Red Square from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons during the May 9 parade in Moscow. The document states that the decision was made “for humanitarian purposes” following negotiations with the American side.
