U.S. national debt exceeds 100% of GDP — WSJ
U.S. public debt has exceeded 100% of gross domestic product. This figure is approaching the record high recorded after World War II. The rise in debt is raising concerns about the country’s financial stability.
The Wall Street Journal reports on this.
As of March 31, 2026, the country’s national debt stood at $31.27 trillion, while GDP for 2025 was $31.22 trillion. This means the ratio is 100.2%, compared to 99.5% at the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30.
This figure is likely to rise in the near future, as the federal government runs a high budget deficit every year. It amounts to nearly 6% of GDP and increases the national debt each time.
This year, the federal budget deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion—almost as much as in 2025. At the same time, the final outcome will depend on the costs of the war with Iran, the return of customs duties, and the state of the economy.
The publication notes that this milestone in itself is not particularly significant, and there is no specific threshold at which debt transitions from problematic to catastrophic.
At the same time, the three-digit figure symbolizes the financial pressure on the U.S. that has been building for decades.
As debt rises, the government also becomes more sensitive to interest rates: currently, one in every seven dollars of federal spending goes toward interest payments, but a 0.1% increase in the interest rate would cost the U.S. $379 billion over 10 years.
The last time the national debt exceeded 100% of GDP was in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the time, however, this was linked to a recession and a decline in GDP.
Shortly thereafter, the ratio declined due to the end of the stimulus program, the resumption of economic growth, and an increase in nominal GDP driven by high inflation.
Since 1946, the U.S. has not ended a fiscal year with debt exceeding 100% of GDP—that may now change. Unlike in 2020–2021, the factors driving the deficit are structural rather than temporary, and interest rates are higher than they were then.
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office forecasts that this figure will reach 100.6% this fiscal year and will exceed the post-World War II record by 2030.
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