Dollar in Brazil falls to 5.05 reais ahead of runoff — The Rio Times

In Brazil, on October 19, the real strengthened against the US dollar amid new polls ahead of the presidential election runoff. At 8:08 a.m. US Eastern Time, the dollar was worth 5.046 reais, down 0.54% for the day. At 8:43 a.m., the rate stood at 5.0485 reais per dollar, or 0.28% below Friday’s closing level of 5.0627 reais, The Rio Times reports.

Over the previous week, the dollar rose from 4.9871 reais on October 12 to 5.0970 reais on October 15, before falling to 5.0627 reais on October 16. Thus, the October 19 movement continued the dollar’s pullback after its rise in mid-month.

Polls ahead of the vote

Investors assessed the results of two polls — BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel — ahead of Brazil’s presidential election runoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. Both surveys showed a close race between Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Flávio Bolsonaro maintained a lead in both polls.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

On the Polymarket prediction market platform, as of 8:46 a.m. US Eastern Time, Flávio Bolsonaro’s probability of winning was estimated at 77%, while Lula’s stood at 23.5%. Trading volume for the election event amounted to $188 million. Such quotes reflect market participants’ bets rather than the results of opinion polls.

Economists’ expectations

Economists surveyed by Brazil’s central bank as part of the weekly Focus survey lowered their median forecast for the dollar exchange rate at year-end from 5.15 to 5.13 reais. At the same time, the forecast for Brazil’s economic growth in 2026 was reduced to 1.83%.

The inflation forecast for 2026 remained at 5.22%, while expectations for the benchmark Selic rate at year-end remained at 13.25%. Selic is Brazil’s key interest rate.