German Chancellor Merz May Lose His Job This Fall – Politico
On August 7, it was reported that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz could face the prospect of an early resignation as early as the fall of 2026. Ruling parties are discussing the possibility of replacing him due to his record-low approval ratings and the growing strength of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The September elections in the country’s eastern states could prove to be a major test for Merz.
According to the publication, German political circles are increasingly openly discussing the so-called “Kanzlertausch”—a change in the chancellor. Although no high-ranking representative of his political party has publicly spoken out against Merz yet, behind the scenes, the center-right Christian Democratic Union is already considering the possibility of replacing the head of government after just over a year in office.
The regional elections in September could prove to be the main test for Merz. Opinion polls indicate that on September 6, the AfD could win an absolute majority in Saxony-Anhalt. On September 20, the party is poised to win in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and achieve a strong showing in Berlin.
It is precisely a serious defeat for the CDU in the east of the country that could trigger an attempt to replace the chancellor. Supporters of this scenario believe that the conservatives will have to minimize the political fallout from the elections and try to restore their approval ratings with a new leader.
Hendrik Wüst, the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, is cited as the most likely potential successor to Merz. The possibility of such a reshuffle is already being actively discussed in the German media.
An additional problem for Merz is the situation within the CDU in the eastern states. The party fears that after the elections, some local politicians may support state governments led by the AfD. This would mean a breach of the chancellor’s long-standing promise to keep the far-right party out of power.
One of Politico’s sources called the discussions about Merz’s resignation “speculative” for now, but acknowledged that the results of the September elections will be “decisive” for the chancellor’s political future.
Merz’s personal approval ratings are also complicating the situation for him. According to ARD-DeutschlandTrend, only 13% of Germans are satisfied with the chancellor’s performance. This is the lowest figure for a sitting German chancellor in the nearly 30-year history of the poll.
At the same time, a Politico poll showed that the AfD has become Germany’s most popular political party, with 28% support. Merz’s conservative bloc stands at 21%.
The chancellor’s low approval ratings are linked, in particular, to voters’ dissatisfaction with the state of the German economy and skepticism toward planned reforms of the pension and healthcare systems.
At the same time, removing Merz could create even more serious problems for the ruling coalition. The least contentious scenario would be the chancellor’s voluntary resignation, after which the parliamentary majority could elect his successor.
If Merz refuses to step down, his opponents will have to resort to a constructive vote of no confidence—simultaneously removing the incumbent chancellor and electing a new one. Such a scenario could lead to the collapse of the CDU/CSU-Social Democratic coalition and to early parliamentary elections.
For now, Merz retains the support of influential conservatives. Bavarian Prime Minister and Christian Social Union leader Markus Söder is convinced that the chancellor will remain in office.
“I am firmly convinced that Friedrich Merz will remain chancellor. Replacing him would plunge the conservatives into complete chaos,” Söder stated.
According to him, an attempt to replace the chancellor and the early elections it would trigger could ultimately play into the hands of radical political forces.
Source: Politico
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