Former Israeli national security adviser Nagel predicts protests in Iran
In Israel, former national security adviser and head of the National Security Council Jacob Nagel said that six to nine months of sustained economic pressure could create conditions for mass protests in Iran. He said this in an interview with radio station 103fm, The Jerusalem Post reports.
Economic pressure on Iran
Nagel, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, believes that the United States is betting on prolonged economic pressure on Tehran rather than immediately carrying out new strikes. According to him, Washington seeks to weaken Iran by restricting its main sources of revenue.
The former adviser noted that Iran continues to export fuel, although he questioned the accuracy of the published volumes. He suggested that the country may be exporting about half of its pre-war volumes: 10 million barrels instead of 20 million.
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In Nagel's view, prolonged pressure, a lack of funds and high inflation could once again bring Iranians into the streets. He also linked possible protests to the risk of disruptions in electricity and water supplies. At the same time, Nagel stressed that a successful uprising would be difficult due to the Iranian authorities' practice of suppressing protests.
Risks of strikes on energy infrastructure
Nagel said that Iran retains the capability to respond to the pressure. In his assessment, Tehran could strike US allies in the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar.
He also said that advisers close to US President Donald Trump are warning against attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Nagel named Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff and J.D. Vance among them. According to him, such strikes could trigger Iranian attacks on the energy reserves of Gulf countries and push oil prices to $200.
