The conflict between the U.S. and Iran could escalate into a major war again — Al Jazeera
As of the evening of July 9, the situation surrounding the conflict between the U.S. and Iran remains extremely tense. According to military analyst Alex Alfirraz Shirs, the parties have reached their most dangerous point in recent times, and any new attack could derail even the slightest chance of de-escalation.
The expert believes that a major war can only be avoided if both sides exercise restraint. At the same time, neither Washington nor Tehran has so far shown any willingness to back down.
Against the backdrop of a new wave of strikes and mutual threats between the U.S. and Iran, analysts are increasingly warning of the risk of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East. London-based military analyst Alex Alfirraz Shiers offered this assessment in a comment to Al Jazeera.
According to him, the situation has now become significantly more dangerous than it was just a few days ago. “I think we are now in an extremely dangerous situation,” he said. The expert also commented on the temporary agreement between the U.S. and Iran, which was intended to help ease tensions.
In his view, this agreement still technically exists, but its future is highly uncertain. “It may not be dead yet, but it is certainly on the verge of collapse,” Shiers noted.
According to the analyst, after several waves of mutual escalation, it will be very difficult to return to negotiations. He emphasized that the main priority now is to prevent new attacks and further escalation of the conflict. “To emerge from this crisis, restraint is needed on both sides. But so far, it doesn’t seem that either side is ready to show it,” the expert said.
He also drew attention to the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, which remains one of the key sources of tension. Shirs explained that the U.S. is not prepared to accept Iran’s control over this strategically important sea lane. At the same time, he said, Iran itself is also unwilling to relinquish its influence in the region. “It is unacceptable to the United States for Iran to control the strait. For Iran itself, it is unacceptable to lose its status as a major player in the region,” the analyst concluded.
As a reminder, over the past two days, the U.S. has carried out a series of strikes on Iranian military targets. In response, Tehran attacked U.S. bases and facilities in several Persian Gulf countries. Despite statements about not wanting a full-scale war, the exchange of strikes continues, and the risk of further escalation remains high, according to Al Jazeera.
As of the evening of July 9, a drone attacked a camp of the Iranian Kurdish opposition in northeastern Iraq near the city of Erbil. According to preliminary information, there were no casualties or injuries.
As of the evening of July 9, Iran continues to launch strikes against Gulf countries in response to recent U.S. attacks. There are reports of missiles and drones being launched toward Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, though most of the aerial targets were intercepted.
As of the evening of July 9, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had nearly come to a standstill. This was caused by new U.S. strikes against Iran, Tehran’s response, and a sharp increase in risks to shipping in the region.
On Thursday, July 9, Iran stated that it had fired ten ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan. At the same time, Jordanian authorities reported that all missiles were intercepted and that there were no reports of damage or casualties.
Despite this new round of conflict in the Middle East, Iran maintains that it has not abandoned diplomacy and is attempting to restore relations with the Gulf states. Officials in Tehran claim that the U.S. and the West have mistakenly interpreted their willingness to negotiate as a sign of weakness.
Overnight, Iran exported at least 10 million barrels of crude oil and fuel oil. According to analysts, Tehran may have acted quickly out of concern that the U.S. would soon tighten its control over shipping in the region again.
Iran reported the deaths of three Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers following new U.S. strikes. Despite declarations of a ceasefire, the sides continue to exchange attacks, and the situation in the Middle East remains tense.
The United States has announced a large-scale military operation against Iran. Over the past two days, U.S. forces have struck more than 170 military targets located near the Strait of Hormuz. Officials in Washington say the main goal of the operation is to weaken Iran’s ability to attack international shipping.
Despite declarations of a ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again. On Wednesday night, the U.S. and Iran exchanged new strikes, and Jordan announced that it had intercepted Iranian missiles over its territory. Meanwhile, in Iran, the funeral for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei continues amid ongoing hostilities.
