Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro to compete in Brazil’s 2026 elections
In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva intends to run for a fourth term in the 2026 presidential election. His opponent will be Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The first round is scheduled for October 4, while the second will take place on October 25 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote.
The candidates’ positions are nearly equal
According to The Rio Times, a Datafolha poll conducted on September 1–2 among 2,002 voters showed 46% support for Lula and 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro in a possible second round. The stated margin of error is two percentage points, so the publication describes the results as a statistical tie.
In early December 2025, Lula was ahead of Bolsonaro by 15 points, before the senator was officially nominated as a candidate. The publication notes that the nearly equal figures recall the close 2022 race, when Lula won with approximately 51% versus 49%.
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Elections and economic policy
The outcome of the vote may affect Brazil’s future course on tax reform, spending restrictions, social programs, extractive industries and environmental regulation. The Rio Times links Lula’s re-election to the continuation of social spending and development rhetoric with an active role for the state, while also pointing to market pressure for fiscal discipline.
In the publication’s view, a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro could strengthen rhetoric supporting deregulation, agribusiness and the extractive sector. The election will also matter for Brazil’s cooperation with the United States on Amazon protection, clean technologies, critical minerals, 5G networks and infrastructure financing amid competition with China.
The Rio Times calls Brazil’s election a key test for Latin America’s political course in 2026. The publication also reports a shift to the right in Colombia and a change of government in Peru, while investors are watching the fiscal policies and regulatory decisions of new administrations.
