UN says warming will inevitably exceed the 1.5°C threshold
Global warming will inevitably exceed the 1.5°C threshold compared with the pre-industrial level, so the world must limit the scale and duration of this overshoot as much as possible, according to a new report by the UN Environment Programme. RNZ World reports on the document’s findings.
The Limiting Overshoot report became the first UN-level document to acknowledge that keeping warming below 1.5°C is no longer possible even if countries fulfill their current emissions-reduction commitments. Under the most favorable scenarios, global temperatures could peak at around 1.8°C.
Risks of overshoot
The authors warn that this level of warming is likely to exceed the thresholds of certain climate tipping points, including those related to the loss of the world’s coral reefs. A higher peak temperature could accelerate sea-level rise, increase the likelihood of ecosystem collapse, intensify extreme heat and wildfires, and significantly alter the planet’s ice-covered regions.
Small island states and low-lying cities may face partial or complete flooding, while food security and water supplies will be affected. The report stresses that even if temperatures can later be reduced below 1.5°C, many communities will already have suffered irreversible losses and permanently changed living conditions.
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Since the pre-industrial era, the average global temperature has risen by approximately 1.4°C. In 2024, the annual average exceeded 1.5°C for the first time. Extrapolating current trends, global warming could reach this level at the end of the current decade and will continue to rise until emissions reach net zero. As stated in the document, every five years of high emissions adds 0.1°C to peak warming.
Emissions cuts and CO2 removal
The report’s lead author, New Zealand climate researcher Andy Reisinger, said the primary task is to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to him, the world already has solutions to reduce emissions in energy, transport, and from deforestation. The report also calls for significant cuts in methane emissions, which can quickly help limit warming.
At the same time, carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere must be scaled up through forest planting and other carbon-storage technologies. The authors emphasize that such measures should complement, rather than replace, sustained reductions in residual emissions. They also warned that afforestation may compete with food production for land, while new methods, including CO2 removal from the marine environment, remain uncertain and challenging.
Even an optimistic deployment of carbon-removal technologies is unlikely to reduce temperatures by more than a few tenths of a degree this century. Therefore, the report emphasizes, adaptation to the already inevitable consequences of climate change must proceed in parallel with emissions reductions and CO2 removal.
