Poll: Israel’s Likud falls to 18 seats — Jerusalem Post

Israel’s Likud party has lost ground in recent polls and would win 18 seats in the Knesset. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, linked this, among other things, to growing support for Ofer Winter among undecided right-wing voters, the Jerusalem Post reports.

Support among right-wing voters

According to Lazar, over the past month, since candidate lists were submitted, Winter has been drawing votes from the coalition bloc and reducing support for Likud. The pollster recalled that during the large-scale protests against judicial reform, the party’s rating had already fallen from 30 to 25–26 seats, and after October 7 — to about 17–18.

Lazar considers an aggressive Likud campaign against Winter risky. In his view, Winter is consolidating the votes of disappointed supporters of Likud, Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing camp, who find it difficult to vote for the party after October 7 and the past three years. He suggested that without Winter, some of these voters might not vote at all rather than support another political camp.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

Balance between the blocs

At the same time, Lazar said that the total number of seats held by the coalition bloc remains relatively stable — at around 50. In the latest poll, the figure stood at 50 seats, while on Wednesday it was 51. According to the pollster, Likud faces a fundamental choice between fighting for the status of the largest party and preserving its position within its own bloc.

The opposition bloc has also weakened: Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, according to Lazar, fell to 23 seats, while Beyahad dropped to 13. He noted that there is almost no movement of voters between the two political camps. About 8% of respondents, equivalent to roughly 10 seats, remain undecided.

The pollster also pointed to possible uncertainty among opposition supporters over the candidate for prime minister. He named Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot and Avigdor Lieberman among the possible contenders. Lazar separately mentioned the Reservists and Economy Party, which passed the electoral threshold in the latest poll but has not yet established stable positions.