Polish exports to Ukraine rose by 75% after 2022
Following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Poland’s exports to Ukraine increased by 75%. Their share of Poland’s total exports rose from approximately 2% to 3.5%.
This is evidenced by the results of a new study by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
As highlighted in the report, after 2022, Poland’s trade with 12 countries in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia underwent a “significant geographical reorientation.” Specifically, while Russia accounted for nearly 3% of Polish exports in 2021, its share fell to 0.5% in 2024. At the same time, Ukraine has become Poland’s most important trading partner in the East.
Analysts note that Polish direct investment in the region remains relatively small (about $1 billion) and is concentrated mainly in Ukraine and Russia, making it vulnerable to political risks. At the same time, there has been a recorded increase in the inflow of foreign investment from the East into Poland itself. Experts attribute this to attempts to circumvent sanctions, with Belarusian, as well as Russian and Kazakhstani capital, playing a dominant role.
Experts point to the potential for growth in trade with countries seeking integration with the EU, particularly Moldova, as well as with states experiencing rapid economic development, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Despite changes in the trade structure, the overall share of the 12 post-Soviet countries in Polish exports has remained relatively stable. This is explained by a simultaneous reduction in dependence on the Russian market, a rapid increase in exports to Ukraine following the outbreak of full-scale war, and the maintenance of economic ties with less risky markets, notably Kazakhstan. Overall, the share of Poland’s exports to this region fell from approximately 6% in 2021 to about 5% in the first half of 2025.
At the same time, more significant changes occurred in imports: the region’s share of Poland’s purchases fell from 8% in 2021 to 2% in 2024. The main reason was the cessation of imports of Russian energy resources.
The report was prepared by PIE experts in collaboration with the College of Eastern Europe as part of the “Polish Eastern Policy” conference.
Britainis tightening export controls to combat circumvention of Russian sanctions.
In Poland, a company was fined 20 million zlotys (about $5.5 million) for violating EU sanctions by illegally exporting luxury cars to Russia.
Russia is stepping up new tools to circumvent international sanctions by shifting some financial transactions to cryptocurrency payment channels via African countries.
