US officials consider a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 unlikely — Jerusalem Post
US officials increasingly consider a possible Chinese military invasion of Taiwan before 2028 unlikely. As the Jerusalem Post reports, citing people familiar with the US position, this assessment is influenced by delays in China’s military readiness amid an anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s desire to wait for Taiwan’s 2028 elections.
The 2027 benchmark
According to Reuters sources, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has not abandoned the goal of ensuring that the People’s Liberation Army has the capability to seize Taiwan by force by 2027. That year coincides with the centenary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. At the same time, China has not publicly confirmed the existence of an order to be ready by 2027.
The US intelligence community said in its annual threat assessment in March that China at that time had no plan to invade Taiwan the following year and, where possible, would continue to prefer establishing control over the island without using force.
The impact of elections and personnel purges
US officials believe Beijing may more actively consider using force in 2028 or later if Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term. According to them, the re-election of incumbent President Lai Ching-te, who along with his party supports Taiwan’s identity as separate from China, could be particularly significant.
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China considers Taiwan part of its territory, while Taiwan rejects these claims and says that only its residents can determine their own future. Sources also noted that Beijing may take into account the results of the 2028 US presidential election, although one US official does not consider this factor decisive.
Problems with combat readiness
According to the assessment of US sources, the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign limited China’s military progress last year. Investigations and the removal of senior officials also affected the People’s Liberation Army: only two serving officials remain on the Central Military Commission out of its former seven members, including Xi Jinping as its chairman.
One official also noted that Chinese exercises last year were smaller and less threatening than in several previous years. In his view, China has drawn lessons from the wars in Iran and Ukraine about the need to act quickly and avoid a protracted conflict, but China still lacks a number of components for a potential operation against Taiwan.
