Russia may carry out a large-scale mobilization in 2026–2027
Russia may carry out a new wave of mobilization and additionally draft about 600,000 people during 2026–2027. This was stated by Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, who emphasized that intelligence estimates a potential draft of approximately 300,000 people this year and the same number next year.
Russia is considering a new wave of mobilization, which could be significantly larger in scale than previous drafts. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the Russian command may additionally mobilize approximately 600,000 people during 2026–2027. According to him, this amounts to approximately 300,000 people in 2026 and another 300,000 in 2027. At the same time, Ivashchenko emphasized that there is no indication yet that a new mobilization has been announced. Intelligence is referring to plans and possibilities currently being considered by the Russian command.
Putin Denies New Mobilization
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that the Kremlin allegedly has no plans for a new wave of mobilization. According to Ivashchenko, intelligence does not view Putin’s latest statements as sufficient grounds to conclude that there will be no mobilization. “Last week, Putin stated that he supposedly has no plans for additional mobilization and called talk of it an information attack. But in 2021, he similarly denied preparations for a full-scale invasion,” said the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate.
That is precisely why, according to him, Ukrainian intelligence does not rely solely on public statements by the Russian leadership. “Therefore, we base our assessment not on his statements, but on the information available to intelligence,” noted Ivashchenko. Thus, the GUR’s assessment is based on intelligence data regarding the Russian command’s possible plans. At the same time, this does not mean that the Kremlin has already made a final decision to draft exactly 600,000 people.
Why Russia Might Need New Soldiers
According to Ivashchenko, Russia is currently able to largely compensate for its losses on the front lines through its existing military recruitment mechanisms. In other words, the Russian command can, for now, maintain roughly the current size of its force in Ukraine without announcing a large-scale new mobilization. But the situation will change if the Kremlin decides to escalate the hostilities.
For new large-scale offensive operations, Russia will need additional military personnel. This involves not only replenishing losses but also creating new units and increasing the size of its force in Ukraine. “Without a new wave of mobilization, Russia is currently able to largely compensate for its losses and maintain the strength of its force on the Ukrainian front,” Ivashchenko explained.
At the same time, the Russian army is suffering significant casualties in the war against Ukraine. Therefore, even with the ongoing recruitment of contract soldiers, the Kremlin may need an additional source of reinforcements if hostilities continue at the current level or escalate.
The Kremlin Wants More Forces for an Offensive
Ivashchenko cites Russia’s plans for a further offensive as one of the reasons for a possible new draft. According to him, the current number of troops may be sufficient to maintain the war at its present scale. But to carry out more ambitious objectives, Russia will need to increase its troop strength.
“If the Kremlin wants not only to maintain the current scale of the war but also to carry out further military objectives—in particular, the complete occupation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—they will need additional personnel,” stated the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Thus, a possible mobilization is not solely about replacing losses. Russia may need hundreds of thousands more troops to build up its reserves and carry out new offensive operations.
What Does 600,000 Mean?
The figure of 600,000 people cited by the Main Intelligence Directorate covers a two-year period. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, approximately 300,000 people could be drafted in 2026, and another 300,000 in 2027. If this scenario actually plays out, Russia will gain a significant resource for replenishing its army and creating new units.
At the same time, it is important not to confuse the intelligence forecast with a mobilization that has already been announced. Currently, Russian authorities officially deny that they are preparing a new large-scale draft. Therefore, it is not yet possible to say definitively whether there will be a mobilization of exactly 600,000 people.
For Ukraine, this information is important primarily in the context of a possible continuation of the Russian offensive. If Moscow does indeed decide to increase the size of its army, this could indicate the Kremlin’s readiness to continue the war and prepare for new military operations. For now, however, Ukrainian intelligence is discussing a possible scenario that the Russian leadership could implement in 2026–2027. Oleg Ivashchenko, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, spoke about this in an interview with “Ukrinform.”
Importantly, the workers were in shelters at the time of the attack. This helped prevent more serious consequences for the people. Rescue workers are currently extinguishing the fire. The exact extent of the damage to the factory and the consequences of the attack are still being assessed. This was reported by a “Suspilne” correspondent on the scene.
In the Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, military personnel from the Territorial Defense Forces and Special Forces were notified that they are suspects in criminal proceedings regarding the unlawful use of force against civilians during mobilization operations.
