Russia may attack the Galați-Reni area to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports — DefenseRomania
Russia may launch a massive attack on the Galați-Reni area on the Ukrainian-Romanian border to disrupt Ukrainian grain exports. This is stated in an analysis by George Scutaru, CEO of the New Strategy Center think tank, published by DefenseRomania.
According to the analyst’s assessment, following setbacks on the front lines, the Kremlin has shifted the focus of its strategy and is attempting to increase pressure on Ukraine and its partners. One of Russia’s goals, as noted, is to intimidate European countries and reduce their support for Kyiv.
The study emphasizes that the situation escalated in July. According to DefenseRomania, Russian forces attacked more than 30 merchant ships, two of which were struck near Romania’s territorial waters.
The author paid particular attention to the incidents of July 24–26, when the Romanian Air Force, for the first time in three consecutive days, shot down three Russian drones that had violated the country’s airspace. At the same time, the article notes that prior to this, Russia had already violated Romania’s airspace dozens of times, and debris from its drones had fallen on Romanian territory more than 50 times.
The article also notes that the constant strikes on the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi are effectively creating a naval blockade of Ukraine, as shipowners are increasingly refusing to call at Ukrainian ports. This jeopardizes the monthly export of 6–7 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain.
An additional risk cited is the historic drought on the Danube, which has complicated the alternative export route due to lower water levels and the need to reduce barge loads.
According to the analyst, the next stage of escalation could involve massive attacks using the new Geran-5 jet drones. He believes that Russia may first test the response speed of air defense systems by launching coordinated waves of drones from different directions. The Galatz-Reni area is cited as particularly vulnerable due to the limited time available to intercept targets.
In addition, the study warns of possible sabotage on the Sulina shipping channel and threats to the Neptun Deep gas project in Romania’s exclusive economic zone.
Against this backdrop, as DefenseRomania notes, Bucharest has declared its intention to respond more forcefully to violations of its airspace. The author of the analysis suggests that, in the event of further escalation, Romania may, for the first time, initiate consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty.
Source: DefenseRomania.
As a reminder, Romania has begun importing electricity from Ukraine due to a generation shortfall.
The Romanian government convened an emergency meeting due to a threat to the safe operation of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant, which arose amid extreme heat and a critical drop in water levels in the Danube.
