US intelligence: War may have boosted Iran’s confidence — Dawn
In the United States, American intelligence agencies believe that six months of war may have not weakened but strengthened Iran’s confidence in its ability to withstand pressure from Washington and continue the conflict. Dawn reports, citing a New York Times report and people who reviewed intelligence assessments.
According to The New York Times, Tehran has become more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears intent on continuing the confrontation for several more months in order to pressure the United States. Fighting resumed this week, although the new exchanges of strikes have so far been limited. At the same time, intelligence data, according to the newspaper, indicate that Iran’s hardline authorities may be considering a significant escalation.
Negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz
Current and former US officials who spoke to The New York Times said they see no significant signs that Tehran is ready to reach an agreement with Washington to end the war. Some officials suggest that Iran may try to prolong the conflict at least until the US midterm elections in November. In their view, prolonged hostilities and high energy prices could create difficulties for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
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According to the outlet, Trump is currently not negotiating because he believes economic pressure could force Iran to make concessions over control of the Strait of Hormuz and later over its nuclear program. At the same time, officials familiar with the intelligence warn that sanctions could trigger further escalation. Before the war, approximately one-fifth of global oil volumes passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Missiles, drones and cyberattacks
As Dawn notes, Iran’s military calculations may rely on its growing missile and drone capabilities, as well as on using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. House Intelligence Committee member Jason Crow said the Iranian leadership is increasingly confident in its position, although the country has suffered significant losses. Other officials believe Tehran may be counting on limitations in the US ability to carry out large-scale new attacks because of dwindling ammunition stockpiles.
US officials also suggest that Iran-linked hackers may have been responsible for attacks on more than 100 US water supply systems in late July. According to them, these attacks did not make drinking water unsafe, but some caused disruptions, required manual intervention in system operations, and prompted boil-water advisories. Separately, Meta identified a small network of accounts from Iran on Facebook and Instagram that posted material about US politics.
