In 2025, Japan's birth rate fell to a historic low
In Japan, the number of newborns in 2025 fell to the lowest level on record, and this decline turned out to be steeper than demographers had predicted. The country has been recording a declining birth rate for the tenth consecutive year, and the decline is accelerating.
Currently, the figures have approached a level that was previously expected only in a few decades, underscoring the scale of the demographic crisis.
In 2025, 671,236 children were born in Japan, the lowest figure since records began in 1899, according to the country’s Ministry of Health, as reported by NHK. This is 14,937 fewer children than the previous year, and the decline has continued for the tenth consecutive year, indicating a sustained and profound demographic decline. “The figure has been declining for the tenth consecutive year and is now the lowest in recorded history,” according to official data.
The rate of decline in the birth rate turned out to be significantly higher than experts had expected. Just a few years ago, demographers predicted that a level of approximately 670,000 births would not be reached until the 2040s, but in fact, the country has reached this figure nearly a decade and a half earlier. For comparison, the postwar peak in the birth rate in 1949 exceeded 2.69 million children, meaning current figures are only about a quarter of that level.
At the same time, the total fertility rate—a key indicator reflecting the average number of children per woman—has also declined. In 2025, it stood at 1.14, which is also a historic low. Compared to the previous year, this figure fell by another 0.01. “For stable population replacement, the fertility rate must be around 2.1 children per woman,” demographers note, highlighting the severity of the imbalance.
The lowest fertility rate was recorded in Tokyo—0.96 children per woman, which is one of the most critical figures in the country. The highest rate is traditionally observed in Okinawa, where it stands at 1.52, but even this figure does not come close to the level required for simple population replacement.
Japan’s demographic decline has long been viewed as one of the country’s key socio-economic challenges, affecting the labor market, the pension system, and the overall structure of society. The situation, in which the country has been experiencing a declining birth rate and rapid aging for decades, presents the government with challenges that have no simple solutions and require a long-term strategy. This is reported by NHK.
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