El Niño in South Africa could become the strongest on record — TimesLIVE

In South Africa, the El Niño phenomenon could become the strongest in the entire observation record. According to a TimesLIVE column, South Africa’s ENSO specialists’ group considers the current phenomenon exceptional, while forecasters expect it to peak between November 2026 and February 2027.

El Niño is associated with warming waters in the Pacific Ocean. For southern Africa, it usually means hotter and drier conditions. The South African Weather Service warned of rising temperatures and greater weather variability during the season.

Risks for the agricultural sector

A prolonged rainfall deficit may affect planting decisions and yields, increase pressure on water resources, and raise the risk of forest and wildfires. According to the author’s assessment, reduced agricultural production could affect food prices, household expenses, and the operations of businesses dependent on water or agricultural raw materials.

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At the same time, a strong El Niño will not necessarily mean drought across the entire country: even during an intense phenomenon, a short wetter period is possible at the end of spring. The two previous favorable rainy seasons supported reservoir water levels, while the maize harvest in the 2025/26 season was record-breaking. However, as scientists note, these factors do not guarantee the absence of losses in the new season.

Preparing for the season

In its May monetary policy committee statement, the South African Reserve Bank described El Niño as an additional inflation risk. The regulator warned that a severe phenomenon could intensify pressure on economic growth and prices.

The National Disaster Management Centre has already begun planning, the column says. Its author, Thabiso Rulashe, Santam’s head of strategy and investor relations, called on the authorities to accelerate funding for early warning systems and municipal planning, and on businesses to review the resilience of their supply chains.