The dollar in Ukraine could rise to 46 hryvnia due to export problems — Forbes
The official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine has exceeded 45 UAH for the first time. According to forecasts by banks and investment companies, the U.S. currency could reach 45.5–46.6 UAH by the end of the year. Forbes cites the blockade of ports and the shutdown of the steel industry as factors putting pressure on the hryvnia.
Analysts cite Russia’s blockade of seaports and the virtual shutdown of Ukraine’s steel industry as the main reasons for the deterioration of the trade balance and increased demand for foreign currency. The experts surveyed expect the hryvnia to continue to weaken gradually through the end of the year.
At the start of the week, the Ukrainian currency market saw two significant changes: the official dollar exchange rate exceeded 45 UAH for the first time in history, while the euro exchange rate fell to its lowest level in six months.
To stabilize the currency market, the National Bank of Ukraine has been forced to increase the volume of its interventions. In September, the regulator sold a record $5.5 billion from its reserves. In total, over the first nine months of 2026, the volume of currency interventions reached $38.5 billion, compared to $26 billion during the same period last year.
Due to the blockade of its ports, Ukraine has lost a significant portion of its ability to export metal products and other goods. As a result, foreign exchange inflows from exporters have declined, and consequently, the supply of foreign currency in the domestic market has also decreased.
Additionally, export revenues are being reduced by the shutdown of metallurgical enterprises. This sector has traditionally accounted for a significant portion of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, so the suspension of its operations is exacerbating the trade deficit.
At the same time, demand for foreign currency is rising due to increased imports. A significant portion of international financing is directed toward domestic defense contracts; however, Ukrainian manufacturers are forced to purchase components for the production of weapons and ammunition from abroad.
Despite these factors, analysts do not foresee a sharp collapse of the hryvnia. Substantial amounts of foreign financial aid should enable the NBU to maintain international reserves and curb exchange rate fluctuations even in the face of a significant trade deficit.
Raiffeisen Bank expects the dollar exchange rate to be 46.6 UAH/USD by the end of the year, while ICU forecasts 45.8 UAH/USD and Concorde Capital predicts 45.5 UAH/USD.
Thus, one of the main risks for the hryvnia through the end of the year remains a decline in foreign exchange earnings due to the blockade of seaports and the crisis in the metallurgical industry.
The longer the restrictions on maritime exports and the shutdowns of large industrial enterprises persist, the greater the pressure will be on the foreign exchange market and the reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Source: Forbes Ukraine
As a reminder, berry prices are rising in Ukraine due to a European shortage.
Changes in the dollar exchange rate could affect the cost of a number of products in Ukrainian stores. Goods that Ukraine imports or produces from foreign raw materials are most at risk of becoming more expensive.
Ukraine has seen a rise in wholesale prices for domestically grown tomatoes. At the capital’s wholesale market, red, pink, and ground tomatoes have become more expensive. At the same time, prices in retail chains vary significantly depending on the type of product, region, and the availability of special promotional offers.
