BNEF: $332 billion needed to avoid copper shortage — OilPrice

To prevent a global copper shortage by 2050, $332 billion must be invested in developing new copper mines. BloombergNEF published this forecast in its Transition Metals Outlook 2026 report, OilPrice reports.

The shortage could begin in 2028

According to BloombergNEF estimates, a copper shortage on the global market could begin in 2028. By 2050, the deficit could reach 20 million metric tons, or 44% of projected global demand.

Global copper demand in 2026–2050 will increase by 61%, according to analysts' forecast, to nearly 46 million tons. Demand for the metal in electrified transport will rise by 244% and reach 11.4 million tons.

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Risks for electrification

BloombergNEF believes that a copper shortage could raise prices, force manufacturers to switch to alternative materials, and slow the deployment of electric vehicles, batteries, and power grids. Even with the necessary investment, bringing a new mine online takes 17 years on average, so the shortage could persist for decades.

At the same time, nine out of ten key metals for the energy transition are forecast to have sufficient long-term production capacity through 2050. This applies to lithium, graphite, cobalt, aluminum, nickel, manganese, steel, platinum, and palladium.

The report also notes that China continues to dominate global metal processing. More than half of the processing capacity for eight of the ten materials studied is concentrated in one country; in seven cases, that country is China.