Argentina is pushing Ukraine out of a key sunflower oil market
Argentina is actively strengthening its position in the global sunflower oil market and has already surpassed Ukraine in one of its key export sectors. The country continues to increase production and processing. Analysts note that the sunflower oil market is changing rapidly, and the traditional rivalry between Ukraine and Russia is gradually being joined by Argentina’s growing influence.
As noted by Viktoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, Argentina’s share of global sunflower oil exports has grown significantly. While it stood at about 7% in the 2016/17 marketing year, it exceeded 10% in the 2024/25 marketing year, and is projected to reach 13% in the 2026/27 marketing year, according to USDA estimates.
By comparison, Ukraine currently controls about 33% of global sunflower oil exports, while Russia accounts for approximately 31%. Thus, a market that was effectively a Black Sea region duopoly just a decade ago is gradually shifting toward three-way competition.
These changes have become particularly noticeable in India—the world’s largest importer of sunflower oil. After the start of the full-scale war, Russia quickly ramped up its supplies and captured part of Ukraine’s market share. At the same time, Argentina has also been systematically increasing its presence in the Indian market.
How Argentina Overtaken Ukraine in India
According to analysts, Argentine exports to India have shown steady growth over the past few seasons. While the country supplied approximately 380,000 tons of sunflower oil in the 2021/22 marketing year, this figure exceeded 515,000 tons in the 2023/24 marketing year.
In the current season, Argentina has made an even stronger leap forward. From September through April of the 2025/26 marketing year, a record 530,000 tons of sunflower oil were exported to India. By comparison, Ukrainian shipments during this period totaled 344,000 tons.
Thus, for the first time, Argentina has surpassed Ukraine in one of its key export markets. According to experts, this shift indicates not a temporary fluctuation but a long-term transformation of the global market.
Taxes and processing became drivers of the sunflower boom
Analysts attribute Argentina’s success to a combination of external and internal factors. The first driver was supply issues from the Black Sea region, which prompted importers to diversify their purchases more actively.
Tax policy played an equally important role. After export duties were reduced, Argentina’s sunflower sector gained a significant advantage over the soybean complex. In 2024–2025, tax rates on sunflower seeds and processed products were lowered, while the soybean sector continues to be subject to significantly higher duties.
This made sunflower cultivation significantly more profitable and stimulated the expansion of planted acreage. Sunflower production in Argentina in the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated at approximately 7 million tons, compared to 5.6 million tons the previous year, and could rise to 8 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.
At the same time, the country is actively expanding processing capacity. The existing infrastructure, which previously focused primarily on soybeans, allowed for a rapid shift toward sunflower processing without large-scale investments in new plants. However, the industry is already approaching the limits of its available production capacity, and further growth will require new investments in processing infrastructure.
Processors are turning away from sunflower seeds: what’s happening in the oilseed market
- Ukrainian processors are scaling back operations due to high sunflower prices and switching to rapeseed and soybeans to minimize losses.
- Sunflower prices are falling, but supply remains weak, forcing farmers to sell their remaining stocks ahead of the rapeseed and barley harvest season.
Most of the remaining crop is currently held by medium-sized farmers. However, they won’t hold onto the sunflower seeds for long, as the rapeseed and barley harvest season is approaching. Therefore, the first half of June could see active sales of remaining stocks and some revival in the raw materials market.
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