The government has released its forecast for the dollar exchange rate and the minimum wage through 2029
On June 16, the government presented the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, which includes projections for the dollar exchange rate and the minimum wage. The document outlines two scenarios—one assuming the war ends and another assuming hostilities continue.
Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko presented the document at a meeting of the Coalition Council. The meeting was attended by Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and members of the government.
In the baseline scenario, which assumes the war will end, the government forecasts inflation at 8.9% in 2027 and a dollar exchange rate of 48.3 UAH by the end of the year.
At the same time, even under the optimistic scenario, a gradual weakening of the hryvnia is anticipated. The average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to rise from 44.4 UAH in 2026 to 50.7 UAH in 2029. By the end of 2029, the exchange rate is expected to reach 51.5 UAH per dollar.
One of the priorities of budget policy is raising social standards.
The minimum wage is projected to increase:
- in 2027 – by 10.4%;
- in 2028 – by 8.7%;
- in 2029 – by 7.1%.
Thus, over three years, it will increase by nearly 29%—from the current 8,647 UAH to over 11,000 UAH.
The subsistence minimum for able-bodied individuals is also planned to increase:
- in 2027 – by 10.9%;
- in 2028 – by 8.9%;
- in 2029 – by 7.1%.
The government forecasts a further increase in public debt. By the end of 2026, it will amount to 106.1% of GDP, and in 2027 – 113% of GDP.
Ukraine’s need for international financing in 2027 is estimated at 2.134 trillion UAH.
This includes support from G7 countries, the European Union, the World Bank, the United Kingdom, and the IMF, as well as funds to be received through mechanisms utilizing frozen Russian assets.
Provided the security situation improves, the government expects a gradual reduction in the budget deficit:
- 18.5% of GDP in 2026;
- 17.7% of GDP in 2027;
- 1.1% of GDP in 2028;
- 5.5% of GDP in 2029.
State budget expenditures are projected to peak in 2027 at 5.05 trillion UAH, after which they will begin to decline:
- 4.77 trillion UAH in 2026;
- UAH 5.05 trillion in 2027;
- 4.87 trillion UAH in 2028;
- 4.55 trillion UAH in 2029.
Yulia Svyrydenko reported that the government plans to continue the monthly supplement of 10,000 UAH for support staff in the Armed Forces in 2027.
If active hostilities end as early as 2026, the government forecasts an acceleration in economic growth.
Real GDP is expected to grow:
- by 4.5% in 2027;
- in 2028 – by 5.3%;
- in 2029 – by 6.7%.
Nominal GDP during this period could increase from 10.1 trillion UAH in 2026 to nearly 15 trillion UAH in 2029.
Source: Telegram channel of MP Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk.
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