Dairy products may become more expensive in Ukraine
Demand for dairy products is slowing in Ukraine, but producers are facing rising costs for fuel, electricity, logistics, and packaging. As a result, dairy products may become 5–10% more expensive by the end of summer and throughout the fall and winter.
According to analysts, Ukrainian retail chains are reporting a slowdown in food sales.
Among the reasons are the waning effect of high inflation expectations, as well as increases in wages and government benefits, which previously supported consumer spending.
Additionally, the market is affected by a labor shortage, which, according to estimates, is being felt by 69% of Ukrainian companies. This is due to mobilization and forced emigration, which have reduced the number of potential consumers within the country.
According to the AVM, the average prices for key dairy products are as follows:
- pasteurized milk 2.6% in film packaging – 48.76 UAH/kg (+0.9% over the month), in a bottle – 67 UAH/kg (+1%);
- 2.5% kefir in plastic wrap – 59.53 UAH/kg (+1.3%), in a bottle – 79.19 UAH/kg (-0.3%);
- sour cream 15% in cups – 194.31 UAH/kg (+0.8%), in plastic wrap – 157.17 UAH/kg (+1.03%);
- drinking yogurt – 125.98 UAH/kg (+1.96%), spoonable yogurt – 176.78 UAH/kg (-0.7%);
- 9% fat sour milk cheese – 295.09 UAH/kg (-2.5%).
Ukrainian-produced butter with a fat content of 72.5–73% sells for an average of 592.09 UAH/kg, which is 1.3% cheaper than a month ago. At the same time, imported butter costs about 1,170 UAH/kg, which is nearly twice as expensive.
The hard cheese market is showing mixed price trends:
- "Ukrainian" cheese – 607.26 UAH/kg (-4%);
- "Dutch" – 627.28 UAH/kg (+0.4%);
- Ukrainian “Maasdam” – 781.21 UAH/kg (+3.6%), while the imported Kroon equivalent costs 529 UAH/kg;
- "Gouda" – 591.66 UAH/kg (-4%);
- Ukrainian “Mozzarella” – 574.24 UAH/kg, imported ARO – 669 UAH/kg.
Experts note that European cheeses are increasingly competing with Ukrainian producers, as they are often sold at lower prices. This is forcing some domestic companies to cut back on production.
At the same time, the cost of production for Ukrainian dairy products is rising due to higher prices for diesel fuel, electricity, and packaging materials, the prices of which depend on foreign exchange rates.
The Milk Producers Association forecasts that the price of butter will remain relatively stable in the near future, as supply currently exceeds demand, and exports to EU countries remain economically unprofitable for most producers.
At the same time, due to rising production costs, prices for dairy products in Ukraine are expected to increase by 5–10% in the coming months.
“The dairy industry is operating amid rising production costs, which creates the conditions for a price adjustment for dairy products. In Ukraine, dairy products are likely to become 5–10% more expensive by the end of summer and throughout the fall and winter,” the AMM noted.
This was reported by the Association of Milk Producers (AVM).
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