Weapons production could provide an additional security guarantee for Ukraine
Amid reports of preparations for peace talks in Abu Dhabi, the question of security guarantees that could protect Ukraine from a new Russian invasion remains unresolved. At the same time, there is another way to strengthen the country’s defenses: increasing arms production.
Weapons manufacturers can increase production volumes if they receive the necessary funding.
Over several years of negotiations, the focus regarding guarantees for Ukraine has shifted from talks on NATO membership to security commitments from a group of partner countries known as the Coalition of the Willing. However, Russia opposes the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine. Ukraine, for its part, is not prepared to accept guarantees that are purely on paper.
The authors identified another way to ensure Ukraine’s security in the future: a strong military and the development of the defense industry, whose output has grown from $1 billion to $55 billion during the years of full-scale war.
The strengths of this industry include the ability to test weapons on the battlefield and competitive pricing. The downside is a lack of funding:
“Ukrainian defense enterprises are currently capable of producing significantly more than the state can afford to purchase. This unused capacity is a waste that Ukraine cannot afford during wartime.”
To address this issue, a Danish-style model is being developed, in which a number of countries have begun funding additional production at Ukrainian defense enterprises as a direct form of military aid. In addition, Ukraine is gradually opening up arms exports.
At the same time, exports do more than just strengthen the country through the inflow of funds. They also strengthen Ukraine’s position by expanding the country’s participation in the European security sector. The emergence of joint ventures between Ukrainian and European partners is also contributing to this. Such ventures are emerging in the field of drone production.
As the Atlantic Council magazine notes, until this issue is effectively resolved, there will be no real prospects for lasting peace in Eastern Europe.
As a reminder, a meeting on security guarantees and Ukraine’s reconstruction will take place in Brussels.
The U.S. has offered Ukraine security guarantees modeled after Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to convey these proposals to Russian leadership during his visit to St. Petersburg on October 21. At the same time, the details of the possible guarantees have not yet been disclosed, and neither Moscow nor Washington has officially commented on the Ukrainian president’s statement.
