ISW explains why Russian forces have slowed their advance
The pace of the advance by Russian occupation forces in Ukraine noticeably slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026.
According to experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this is linked to the deterioration of winter weather conditions.
The average seven-day rate of territorial gains peaked on 1–2 December, after which it began to decline steadily.
The study shows that during the autumn and early winter, Russian forces took advantage of favourable conditions to intensify their offensive, relying on reduced activity by Ukrainian drones.
However, with the onset of colder weather, the Russian command likely attempted to accelerate operations by the end of the year in order to meet set objectives, which proved ineffective.
In the new year, Russian forces are facing difficulties in maintaining the tempo of their advance due to changes in tactics that rely more heavily on infantry. An increase in combat activity by the occupiers is expected to continue in January, but attempts to achieve a breakthrough may be complicated.
