Mirnograd ends up in a “grey zone” — DeepState
The OSINT project DeepState reported that Russian forces advanced northwest of Mirnograd in Donetsk, resulting in the city being surrounded by “grey zones” not controlled by either side. This complicates the supply of Ukrainian units in the city and could prompt a retreat in this direction, according to military experts.
By Monday evening, DeepState confirmed that Russia had captured settlements south of Mirnograd — Lysivka, Sukhy Yar, Hnativka, Rohu, and Novopavlivka. The project also recorded a “grey zone” in the village of Rivne west of the city. As a result, Mirnograd is now surrounded by territory controlled by Russian forces and zones where troops from both sides are present.
The formation of a “grey zone” around the city has been observed over the past few days, said military analyst Yan Matveyev. The Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) group clarified that the zone’s closure had been monitored since the second half of November. Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske, citing Ukrainian Marines, reported on December 3 that the city had been surrounded at least since November 29. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that the combat zone has not yet been completely closed.
According to Ukrainska Pravda, some Ukrainian units withdrew from positions near Mirnograd to avoid potential encirclement and to straighten the frontline. However, no withdrawal from the city itself has been observed, reported military analyst Julian Repke.
Experts explain that there is currently no classical encirclement because the northern part of the city is still not controlled by Russian forces. The military presence of both sides allows movement in both directions but with high risk, noted analyst Kyrylo Mykhailov. The situation around Pokrovsk, 6 km southwest of Mirnograd, has also seriously worsened, added military expert Yuriy Fedorov.
Supplying Ukrainian units in Mirnograd is currently only possible using drones, including ground-based ones. According to Mykhailov, the command may decide on a withdrawal in the coming weeks. Fedorov adds that leaving the city will be difficult due to active fighting in the area and will likely happen in a disorganized manner. CIT notes that Ukrainian forces could leave the city but only with losses and leaving behind heavy weapons and equipment.
Analysts emphasize that holding Mirnograd now has more political than military significance. At the same time, a withdrawal would preserve experienced soldiers and allow a more reliable defense to be organized west and northwest of Pokrovsk. Strategically, both options will not change the frontline situation.
