Possible scenarios of Russian pressure on NATO — OilPrice
OilPrice has published an analysis of possible steps by the Russian Federation as an aggressor state amid the war against Ukraine, losses of the Russian army, and economic pressure. The outlet links these scenarios to the Russian State Duma elections, which, according to the data cited in the article, ended on September 20, 2026: the United Russia party received 57.83% of the vote and 355 of 450 seats.
Possible expansion of mobilization
According to estimates cited by OilPrice, Russia suffers around 34,000 killed and wounded casualties every month, while recruitment programs provide approximately 27,000 new military personnel. The outlet refers to an unnamed source who said they cooperate with the EU energy security complex. According to the source, the first wave of broader mobilization in Russia could involve between 300,000 and 600,000 people, followed by around 300,000 annually.
OilPrice also claims that the Kremlin has integrated an automated digital military register with the border control system, meaning a person may be barred from leaving the country after an electronic summons is entered into the register. According to the outlet, after the vote, Russian authorities began involving the private sector and regional administrations in fulfilling mobilization tasks.
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Hybrid risks for NATO
The author names an intensification of hybrid operations against NATO states as another possible direction of Kremlin action; such operations may remain below the threshold for invoking Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The article's author cited incidents involving critical infrastructure in Finland and the North Sea, as well as reports of drones in the airspace of Alliance countries, linking them to Russia.
An unnamed OilPrice source suggested that potential areas for testing NATO's response could be the Suwałki Corridor on the Polish-Lithuanian border or the Swedish island of Gotland. This is the outlet's source's assessment, not a confirmed plan of the Russian authorities.
Economic factors
OilPrice also mentions the Bank of Russia's forecast of GDP growth in 2026 within a range of 0–1% and the Russian Ministry of Economic Development's estimate of 0.4%. According to data cited by the outlet, the liquid assets of Russia's National Wealth Fund declined from 6.5% to 1.8% of GDP. The author believes that these factors, together with sanctions pressure, may intensify the Kremlin's internal problems.
