Russia's new offensive has completely failed — ISW
The Russian military leadership is attempting to conceal its actual failures on the front lines by presenting fabricated claims of capturing Ukrainian territory as significant strategic successes.
Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed General Valery Gerasimov’s latest statements and concluded that the figures he cited exceed the actual achievements of the occupying forces by several times.
During a visit to the headquarters of the Southern Military District on April 21, Gerasimov claimed that since the beginning of 2026, the Russian army had allegedly occupied over 1,700 square kilometers of territory and 80 settlements.
According to the general, the aggressor has supposedly managed to fully capture the Luhansk region, which once again does not correspond to reality and is refuted even by pro-Russian sources.
ISW analysts note that the actual situation on the battlefield differs drastically from the reports of the Chief of the Russian General Staff.
Instead of the claimed thousands of square kilometers, the occupiers have managed to advance only 381.5 square kilometers and capture 13 settlements since the beginning of the year.
Throughout March and April, the invaders’ progress was even worse—the capture of two villages was accompanied by the loss of nearly 60 square kilometers in other areas.
“Gerasimov continues to provide significantly overstated estimates of Russian troop advances, despite their poor results during the spring-summer offensive campaign,” the ISW report emphasizes.
Even the most optimistic interpretations for Russia allow for only 42% of the territory claimed by the Russian command.
Experts were particularly surprised by claims of “deep breakthroughs” toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Gerasimov asserted that his troops had advanced to within 7 and 12 kilometers of these cities, respectively.
In reality, even Russian military bloggers indicate a significantly greater distance to these settlements, confirming systematic disinformation within the Russian military hierarchy.
The general also claimed control over 70% of Lyman in the Donetsk region and most of Novopavlivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
However, international observers have not recorded any evidence of the occupiers’ presence in Lyman, and control over Novopavlivka amounts to only about 20%, which is significantly less than the claimed 75%.
It is also telling that Gerasimov reported the “capture” of the settlements of Borova, Studenok, and Zaporozhets. These villages are located 10–12 kilometers from the actual front line as recorded on maps.
Moreover, the well-known Russian propaganda outlet “Rybary” marks these settlements on its maps as being under the full control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The systematic lies of the high command are causing irritation even among Russian propagandists and military bloggers.
The lack of a single map of the occupiers’ successes that would confirm Gerasimov’s figures only underscores the Russian General Staff’s attempts to justify its own ineffectiveness to the political leadership in the Kremlin.
Zelenskyy stated that Russia’s military ambitions are growing due to the easing of pressure from its partners
Russia has launched a covert forced mobilization due to a shortage of recruits
Russian troop losses have reached record levels and exceeded their monthly mobilization rate.
