Russia is striking the energy sector, but its advance on the front has slowed
Despite intensified Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, its military advance on the front has slowed. At the beginning of 2026, the pace of the offensive was lower than at the end of last year. This was stated by the head of the Intelligence Centre of the Estonian Defence Forces, Ants Kiviselg. His remarks were quoted by ERR.
According to Estonian intelligence assessments, the intensity of combat operations decreased slightly last week compared with the end of 2025. At the same time, strikes on Ukraine’s energy sector remained systematic and targeted. “Last week, there were on average about 170 combat engagements per day. This is slightly fewer than a week earlier, when there were around 200,” Kiviselg noted.
He said that the pace of Russian troop advances was even more indicative. At the beginning of 2026, it became slower than in November and December of last year, when Russia was attempting to apply pressure in several directions at once. “The advance of Russian Federation units at the beginning of this year was slower than at the end of 2025,” the head of the intelligence centre emphasised.
At the same time, according to the Estonian side, the Kremlin’s strategic priorities remain unchanged. The fiercest fighting continues to take place in eastern Ukraine. “Russia’s main focus has not changed. The most intense combat operations continued in the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad directions, as well as in the areas of Zaporizhzhia and Huliaipole,” Kiviselg reported.
He added that Russian units had achieved limited tactical advances in certain sections of the front. “Russian forces advanced in the northern part of Kharkiv region, as well as in the directions of Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk. In addition, advances were recorded in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region,” he said.
At the same time, Estonian intelligence also notes the actions of Ukraine’s Defence Forces. According to Kiviselg, last week the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to improve their positions in one important direction. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced in the Kupiansk area,” he reported.
Overall, according to Estonian assessments, the situation on the front remains tense, but the pace of the Russian offensive is no longer as high as at the end of last year. At the same time, attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure remain a key element of Russia’s strategy.
