Russia to lose $30 billion in oil and gas revenues this year, to lose $50 B. next year
The Russian Federation is expected to lose $30 billion in oil and gas revenues this year and could lose around $50 billion next year. These losses are the result of sanctions pressure, which has led to a significant deficit in the Russian federal budget.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) during the Kyiv Sanctions Summit, according to Ukrinform.
First Deputy Head of SZRU Oleg Luhovskyi emphasized that the energy sector remains a key source of funding for Russia’s military machine. This year, the sanctions coalition imposed restrictions on more than 500 entities in Russia’s energy sector, including oil tankers, traders, financial institutions, and a significant number of organizations that are part of Russia’s shadow shipping ecosystem.
Currently, the price of Russian oil has fallen to a record $40 per barrel in seaports. In addition, the discount on Urals crude has nearly doubled — from $12 to $20 per barrel — while tanker freight costs have increased by 15%. Since November, a reduction in Russia’s oil exports by sea has been observed.
Luhovskyi added that sanctions pressure has reduced Russia’s oil production to 30 million tons this year, and this trend is expected to continue. In 2025, Russia saw a 20% decrease in the drilling of new oil wells.
As a reminder, the Russian State Duma approved a budget with military spending 1.5 times higher than social expenditures.
After two months of surplus, the Russian budget has returned to deficit. In October, the Ministry of Finance spent 3.4 trillion rubles on revenues of 3 trillion. This led to an increase in the budget deficit from 3.8 to 4.2 trillion rubles over the first ten months of the year.
The Russian economy is entering a prolonged downturn, as companies increasingly report financial difficulties, cut costs, and postpone investments. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, the main challenges for businesses were non-payment by counterparties, declining demand, and a shortage of working capital.
Meanwhile, since the end of 2024, Russia’s annual economic growth has fallen from around 5% to zero. Analysts cite inflation, military investments, and falling oil prices amid Trump-era tariffs as key causes.
After three years of unexpected economic growth, Russia is now facing a sudden slowdown — war expenditures, inflation, and falling oil prices have begun to weigh heavily on an economy that until recently seemed resilient to sanctions.
