German intelligence says Russia is hiding the real budget deficit due to the war
The German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) reported that Russia is understating official data on spending for the war against Ukraine.
According to intelligence estimates, Russia’s budget deficit in 2025 will be 2.36 trillion rubles (approximately $30.45 billion) higher than Moscow reports. The agency believes that actual military expenditures far exceed the published figures.
BND wrote about this in a LinkedIn post.
German intelligence stated that the Russian economy is in the red: sanctions are having an effect, the deficit is growing significantly, and the location of investments is becoming an unpredictable risk.
Intelligence analysts noted that at the start of the fifth year of the Russia–Ukraine war, almost all sectors of the Russian economy show negative growth.
“In addition to much lower revenues from oil and gas due to the sharp decline in global market prices since 2022, this is also linked to the regime of Western sanctions, which has a significant impact,” the agency said.
BND emphasized that the intelligence data confirm: “Russia is trying to conceal the true costs of its aggressive war against Ukraine by embellishing the numbers.”
“The real federal budget deficit for 2025 exceeds the officially declared amount by more than 2.36 trillion rubles (approximately $30.45 billion),” the German intelligence noted.
The agency stressed that these expenditures are accepted and will have effects for many years.
“By hiding economic losses, Russia becomes an unpredictable risk as an investment destination. Putin sacrifices Russia’s economic future for his imperial goals,” BND said.
The Russian economy is following the late USSR scenario, according to intelligence.
Russia is actively staffing regiments of naval and aerial drones, according to Estonian intelligence.
In addition, Russia is ramping up military and infrastructure activities in the Arctic region, potentially threatening the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard.
Furthermore, Russia is expanding military infrastructure near the Finnish border, which could indicate preparations for a potential escalation in the NATO direction.
