The rate of recruitment of contract soldiers into the Russian Armed Forces has fallen to a two-year low

In the first quarter of 2026, 70,500 people enlisted in the Russian Armed Forces, indicating a significant slowdown in recruitment rates compared to previous years. 

This was reported by Janis Kluge, citing calculations by Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, based on regional budget data. 

The average daily influx of recruits fell to 800 people per day—the lowest figure since early 2024. The figure decreased by 20% compared to the same period last year and by 40% compared to the final months of 2025. Even the recent increase in regional signing bonuses to 1.5 million rubles has failed to meet the established quotas. Official statements by Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev, also confirm this negative trend—the figure of 80,000 contract soldiers he cited amounts to only 930 people per day, compared to 1,200 last year. 

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that the exhaustion of financial incentives may force the Kremlin to prepare society for a new wave of mobilization. The significant deficit in Russia’s regional budgets, which has reached 1.5 trillion rubles, further limits the ability to attract volunteers with high bonuses. The situation points to a systemic crisis in the recruitment system and the gradual depletion of human resources in depressed regions. Recruitment problems are jeopardizing the Russian command’s plans to conduct large-scale offensive operations this year. Currently, Russia is forced to seek alternative ways to replenish its occupation forces in Ukraine.