In several EU countries, a significant share of people believe in a quick Russian victory
A large-scale survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in November 2025 revealed a worrying trend.
In most of the European countries surveyed, belief in a Russian military victory outweighs confidence in Ukraine’s success.
The study covered 13 states, including both NATO members and neutral countries. The results highlight a deep gap between perceptions of the war inside Ukraine and views held by European societies.
In seven of the twelve surveyed European countries, the proportion of respondents predicting a Kremlin victory reaches double digits. The situation is particularly pronounced in the Balkans and Central Europe.
The survey also emphasised the uniqueness of Ukrainian society: only in Ukraine does belief in their own military success dominate, with 21% of respondents selecting this option as the most likely outcome within a year. No other European country shows even remotely comparable figures.
The EU is planning measures to overcome Hungary’s veto on Ukraine’s accession and is preparing a special accession format for the country.
