Ukraine cannot independently track Oreshnik launches
Ukraine currently lacks the technical capabilities to independently track the flight of Russia’s “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile. At the same time, the Ukrainian military receives advance warning of such strikes thanks to Western partners and intelligence operations.
The problem lies in the lack of systems capable of tracking the flight of such missiles at high altitudes.
Existing radar systems can detect targets at a distance of approximately 160–180 kilometers and an altitude of up to 30–36 kilometers. However, medium-range ballistic missiles ascend much higher.
“However, this is essentially the final part of its flight,” Zemlyany explained.
In other words, Ukrainian radars are capable of detecting a missile only when it is already approaching the final stage of its trajectory.
Ukraine receives information about preparations for ballistic missile launches from international partners who have their own space and reconnaissance surveillance systems.
“This allows the Ukrainian Air Force to inform the public and the military even before the missile enters the country’s airspace, or before it crosses the front line,” the analyst noted.
In addition, Ukrainian human intelligence plays a crucial role, helping to gather information about the enemy’s intentions even during the strike preparation phase.
“However, at the technical level, we are currently unable to track the missile itself,” he added.
Anton Zemlyany emphasized that citizens should rely primarily on official statements from the Ukrainian Air Force, government officials, and international partners.
According to him, monitoring Telegram channels often make mistakes and spread unverified information.
“Just yesterday, the Air Force reported a ballistic threat without specifying the type. It seems there was an enemy ballistic launch from S-400 systems. But the monitoring channels started writing about ‘Oreshnik,’ the expert cited as an example.
Despite the inability to directly track the missile’s flight, Ukraine receives warnings about potential launches thanks to international intelligence sharing and the work of its own intelligence services. This is precisely what allows for the timely issuance of air raid alerts and preparation for possible attacks.
This was reported by Anton Zemlyany, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.
The Ukrainian Air Force warned Ukrainians of a high probability that Russia would use a medium-range ballistic missile on Friday, June 12. Citizens were urged not to ignore air raid sirens and to take shelter if a danger is announced.
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