The war against Ukraine could end in defeat for Putin – The Guardian
Heavy losses on the front lines, the pressure of sanctions, and domestic economic instability could significantly weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position.
This is according to The Guardian, which analyzes the possible consequences of the war against Ukraine.
According to the author of the article, when he launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Putin likely expected a quick conquest of Ukraine and a political victory. However, instead of a short campaign, Russia has become embroiled in a grueling, protracted war that has turned into a major crisis for the Russian Federation itself.
Against the backdrop of a stalemate on the front lines, Russia has suffered colossal losses: an estimated 1.3 million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. At the same time, the war is taking an increasingly heavy toll on the domestic economy—due to sanctions, inflation, budgetary strain, and a decline in public welfare.
For ordinary Russians, the consequences of the war are becoming increasingly palpable: rising prices, restrictions, mobilization pressure, and public fatigue are gradually undermining the stability on which the Kremlin’s power has rested.
While the war used to feel like something distant to most Russians—events “somewhere abroad”—its consequences are now increasingly being felt directly within Russia itself. Ukrainian drones and missiles regularly strike military and strategic targets far from the border, sometimes at distances exceeding 1,600 kilometers.
At the same time, the war has dealt a serious blow to the Russian economy. Due to the massive demand for workers from the military and the defense industry, the country has faced an acute labor shortage. Although the official unemployment rate in March was only 2.2%, this has led to a slowdown in economic growth, exacerbated inflation, and placed significant pressure on small businesses.
According to the Russian Federation Chamber of Commerce and Industry, nearly two-thirds of small businesses were unprofitable in the first quarter of 2026. Economic growth rates plummeted: while they stood at 4.9% in 2024, they fell to 1% in 2025. The first quarter of 2026 has already shown a further decline—GDP decreased by 0.3% year-over-year.
The situation on the battlefield also indicates serious difficulties for Russia. Despite enormous losses, the advance of the occupying forces remains minimal. This is largely due to Ukraine’s effective use of drones, which have significantly changed the modern battlefield.
Last year, Russia managed to capture only 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory, paying for it with over 400,000 casualties, of which about 200,000 were killed. In 2026, the pace of the offensive slowed even further, and in April, Russian forces lost more territory than they were able to capture for the first time since the fall of 2023.
Against this backdrop, signs of concern are becoming increasingly evident in the Kremlin. Putin’s security has been significantly tightened, his movements within Russia have become more restricted, and his residence in Sochi has been renovated with substantially enhanced security measures. Additionally, the authorities continue to tighten control over the information space, blocking or restricting access to key platforms, including Telegram.
Experts believe that while Putin’s political future remains uncertain, his war is increasingly showing signs of strategic failure, and his outward display of strength may increasingly resemble an attempt to conceal internal weakness.
The presidents of Poland and Romania, Karol Nawrocki and Nicușor Dan, expressed deep skepticism regarding Vladimir Putin’s latest statements about the Russian Federation’s alleged readiness for peace talks.
Putin began talking about “ending the war” due to serious problems on the home front and at the front lines
Ukraine is ready for dialogue with Russia provided Moscow is genuinely committed to serious talks, but such meetings require careful preparation. Any direct contacts between the leaders of the warring states do not occur spontaneously or via ordinary telephone communication.
