According to the ISW, the number of people in Russia willing to fight against Ukraine has decreased by 20%
In Russia, there has been a decline in the number of citizens willing to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense to participate in the war against Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this negative trend has been ongoing for about a year and is only intensifying over time.
In their report, analysts noted a publication by the media outlet “Vichni Istorii.” Citing data on Russian federal budget expenditures, the publication reported that in the first quarter of 2026, 71,200 people received one-time enlistment bonuses after signing contracts with the Ministry of Defense. This is 20% less than in 2025.
“Throughout 2025, 363,900 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is 10% fewer than in 2024,” the publication’s analysts note.
ISW notes that Russia is facing increasing difficulties with recruitment amid rising casualties. Therefore, the Kremlin is forced to draw on reserves, increase signing bonuses, and expand covert mobilization efforts to combat this shortage.
Analysts also write that Russia, as before, seeks to present its main advantage as numerical superiority, but Ukraine’s advantage in drones and medium-range strikes has neutralized this advantage. The reason is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are inflicting disproportionately high losses on Russia in terms of manpower and equipment.
“Against the backdrop of declining recruitment figures and rising casualty counts, the Kremlin is creating conditions for limited, phased call-ups of reservists to make up for losses in Ukraine,” the ISW concluded.
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