ERR: The U.S. assessment of the risk of a Russian attack on NATO has changed less than it appears
According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. intelligence believes a limited military attack by Russia—an aggressor state—on NATO is possible between 2026 and 2029. At the same time, the likelihood of a limited ground invasion is assessed as low, writes Estonian analyst Meelis Oidsalu in an article for ERR News.
In the author’s view, the change in the U.S. assessment does not mean that a Russian attack on the Alliance has suddenly been deemed likely. Previously, it was believed that the Kremlin would not resort to a limited provocation while at war with Ukraine, whereas now such a scenario is considered possible during this decade.
Oidsalu noted that the risk of a potential Russian attack on NATO countries has been discussed since the start of the full-scale aggression against Ukraine. He recalled that former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in his memoirs that it was impossible to rule out an attempt by Vladimir Putin in the future to violate the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Alliance member states.
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Among the possible scenarios, the author considers the rapid seizure of a limited territory on NATO’s eastern flank. The goal of such a move could be to create a new military challenge for the Alliance and to influence the political calculations of member states. A February report by the Atlantic Council identified the seizure of the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard as one of the most likely points of escalation.
The author also writes that hybrid escalation—which is difficult to attribute unequivocally to Russia—is already a reality. He cites massive airstrikes against one or more NATO countries, particularly involving the use of large numbers of inexpensive drones, as a potential threat in the coming years. Potential targets could include infrastructure facilities necessary for the rapid deployment of allied forces to NATO’s border states.
Oidsalu suggested that the release of the updated assessment could be both a genuine intelligence conclusion and an attempt to influence European decisions regarding the war. He urged people not to panic over unlikely scenarios, but to accelerate the development of anti-drone defenses, strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure, build up ammunition stocks, and ensure the rapid deployment of allied reinforcements.
