Team of scientists reports 83% match rate in China earthquake study — South China Morning Post
An international group of scientists led by specialists from China reported that in its study, 83% of the proposed areas were linked to earthquakes that occurred within three months. The team analyzed data on 12 major earthquakes in China in 2022–2024, South China Morning Post reports.
Ring-shaped signals
In an article published in the peer-reviewed journal NPJ Natural Hazards, the researchers described the phenomenon of seismo-ripples — ring-shaped disturbances which, according to their observations, arise before earthquakes and spread from the areas of future epicenters.
The team analyzed anomalous seismic, magnetic and ionospheric resonance signals using data from seismometers, magnetometers and ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System receivers. Of the 12 areas that the researchers linked to possible future earthquakes, a corresponding earthquake occurred within three months after the appearance of such signals in 83% of cases.
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Study limitations
The average distance between the calculated and actual epicenters was about 280 kilometers. Magnitude estimates were, on average, 0.5 units higher than the final recorded values.
One of the study's lead authors, Professor Chen Jiehong of Chengdu University of Technology, said that the team does not claim that earthquakes can already be predicted with accuracy to the minute or within a few kilometers. According to the criteria of the U.S. Geological Survey, a full-fledged forecast must determine the date and time, location and magnitude of an event.
The researchers acknowledged that the method's accuracy is limited by the ambiguity of certain signals, insufficient density of measuring instruments and the need to better explain the physical nature of the anomalies. China is building an upgraded ground-based observation system, and the team also plans to use satellite data and artificial intelligence.
