Russia would lose a war against NATO in 10 days if AI-powered drones were used, according to The Times
Analysts have modeled a possible scenario of a Russian invasion of Lithuania and concluded that the widespread use of modern drones equipped with artificial intelligence could radically shift the course of the war in NATO’s favor.
This is reported by The Times.
The article describes two possible scenarios. The first assumes that following political crises in Europe and a weakening of Western unity, Russia launches a large-scale offensive against Lithuania from several directions simultaneously.
Under this scenario, Russian troops advance through eastern Latvia, attack from Belarus toward Vilnius, and advance from the Kaliningrad region. As a result, by the fifth day of fighting, the Lithuanian capital is nearly surrounded.
Meanwhile, NATO allies hesitate to respond, and Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons to hold onto the captured territories.
In the second scenario, however, the situation changes dramatically thanks to the use of Helsing’s HX-2 kamikaze drones. Lithuanian and German forces each have 12,000 of these drones, causing the first wave of the Russian offensive to effectively fail.
As the publication notes, the HX-2 has a range of about 96 km, a high attack speed, and is capable of carrying warheads to destroy armored vehicles.
The main advantage of these drones is said to be an AI-based guidance system, which allows the drones to hit targets even when electronic warfare systems are actively in use.
The article emphasizes that such drones have been in use on the front lines in Ukraine for nearly a year. Initially, the drones’ effectiveness was low due to Russian signal jamming, but analysts now estimate the hit rate at 60–80%.
It is also reported that during new tests, HX-2s were grouped into semi-autonomous swarms, where a single operator simultaneously controlled ten or more drones.
In a war simulation where NATO forces were equipped with a large number of such drones, Russian troops suffered significant losses. Over a third of Russian forces were destroyed in the first ten days of fighting.
“Most frontline countries could develop the capabilities to deter and, if necessary, defeat at least three Russian first-line armies within one to two weeks,” said Greg Melcher, former director of operations at the Pentagon’s Naval Department.
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that at this point, Russia does not have the capability to launch a major military offensive against NATO countries.
Currently, the North Atlantic Alliance is preparing a major overhaul of its command structure on its eastern flank. The goal of the new military structure is to maximize the speed of response and the rapid deployment of allied forces in Latvia and Estonia in the event of a direct threat from Russia.
The U.S. plans to significantly reduce its military contribution to NATO by cutting back on the provision of key resources and equipment. Washington is effectively urging its European allies to take on a larger share of the defense burden sooner. These new approaches have already sparked debate among Alliance partners.
