The Guardian: Analysts Criticize Trump's Approach to the War with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump has so far been unable to secure a military victory in the war with Iran and has repeatedly backed away from threats of large-scale strikes, citing the possibility of resuming negotiations. The Guardian reports this, citing critics and experts who call such tactics inconsistent.
According to the publication, since the start of the war—which the U.S. launched alongside Israel on February 28—Trump has followed a similar pattern at least seven times: issuing ultimatums to Tehran, threatening attacks, and then returning to negotiations. Last weekend, he stated aboard Air Force One that he had called off a “massive” attack following appeals from allies and in anticipation of a possible agreement.
Negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, but no agreement has been reached yet. The strait, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies passed before the war, remains closed. Trump has also repeatedly stated that the U.S. has “practically” won the war and that the Iranian government is allegedly seeking to reach an agreement.
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Veteran British journalist Andrew Neil ironically criticized Trump’s claims about the alleged repeated establishment of peace. CNN also aired a compilation of 14 videos from March in which the U.S. president spoke about peace being within reach and Tehran’s readiness to reach an agreement. The Guardian notes that these claims contradict Iran’s continued ability to strike at U.S. and allied targets in the Middle East.
Mehrzad Boroujerdi, vice provost and political scientist at the University of Missouri–Science and Technology, believes that Trump’s rhetoric fails to take into account the unique characteristics of the Iranian political system. According to him, leaders of regimes that emerged from mass revolutions are not inclined to yield under pressure, and threats may only strengthen their resolve to resist.
Ali Vaez, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa program, called attempts to explain Trump’s actions through strategic logic “an impossible task.” He noted that following the collapse of the June ceasefire, Iran’s position in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz has strengthened. According to Vaez, the scope of a new large-scale campaign may be limited by concerns over U.S. missile and interceptor stockpiles.
