In the UAE, temperatures reached 43°C in October amid El Niño — The National
In the United Arab Emirates, maximum temperatures in October ranged from 37°C to 43°C, while in some areas they were 4°C above normal levels. The average daily temperature this month was 29.7°C, The National reports, citing the UAE National Centre of Meteorology.
According to the centre, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean ranged from +2.3°C to +3°C. El Niño helps sustain a high-pressure area over the Arabian Peninsula, keeping temperatures above seasonal norms.
Risk of heavy rainfall
October and November are forecast to be the peak months of the El Niño cycle. The National Centre of Meteorology expects above-normal precipitation, including possible heavy downpours that could increase the risk of flooding. At the same time, increased rainfall is not guaranteed.
The centre estimates a 96% probability that potentially unstable weather conditions will persist until March 2027; secondary environmental effects may continue until April. At the end of March this year, parts of the UAE experienced severe flooding. After the floods of 2024, the country's authorities began investing significantly in improving drainage infrastructure.
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Impact of El Niño
Diana Francis, head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences Lab at Khalifa University, noted that El Niño generally shifts weather patterns in the Persian Gulf region and parts of the Arabian Peninsula toward greater humidity and increases the likelihood of heavy rain.
Andries-Jan de Vries, a researcher at the University of Lausanne, explained that brief intense downpours combined with dry soils, mountains and valleys can quickly accumulate water and cause flooding. Zuhair Lachkar, a senior research scientist at New York University Abu Dhabi, stressed that El Niño increases the likelihood of wetter weather but does not guarantee it, as rainfall in the region varies significantly from year to year.
Diana Francis also noted that El Niño's impact on temperatures in the UAE and Gulf countries is relatively weak. She named overall climate warming, the temperatures of the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, and regional air circulation as equally important factors.
