The WMO has warned of a possible intensification of El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a high probability of an El Niño event developing between June and August. According to the organization’s estimates, the probability is about 80%. This phenomenon could lead to an intensification of extreme weather conditions in various regions of the world.
"Fueled by unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific, El Niño conditions are developing and will affect global temperature and precipitation patterns," the WMO said in a statement.
Forecasts from the WMO’s global network “indicate a marked shift toward El Niño conditions, with a probability of up to 80% for the period from June to August.”
El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon that leads to an increase in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, causing global changes in wind patterns, pressure, and precipitation. The phenomenon typically occurs every seven to nine years and lasts about 9–12 months. El Niño is followed by its opposite, La Niña. Neutral periods usually occur between them.
The WMO review states that the probability of El Niño developing by November is “close to or above 90%,” and most forecast models suggest it will be “at least moderate—and possibly strong.”
WMO Director-General Celeste Saulo stated that the world needs to prepare for El Niño, which could “exacerbate droughts and torrential rains, as well as increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.” The organization’s experts warn that even a moderate El Niño could intensify certain extreme weather events.
Indeed, the most recent El Niño contributed to 2023 becoming the second-hottest year on record. 2024 was a record-breaking hot year, with temperatures approximately 1.55 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.
"El Niño is approaching. The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning. El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of global warming. The only effective response is climate action commensurate with the scale of the crisis: ending dependence on fossil fuels, accelerating the transition to renewable energy sources, protecting the most vulnerable populations, and implementing early warning systems for all," said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Although El Niño typically peaks between November and February, the temperature surge it causes is observed later. According to the WMO, weather forecasts for the period from June to August predict "nearly universal prevalence of above-normal temperatures in almost all parts of the globe."
This is reported by Science Alert.
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