IEA worsens forecast for decline in global oil supplies in 2026
In London, the International Energy Agency worsened its forecast for global oil supplies in 2026: they are expected to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 6%. Previously, the agency forecast a decline of about 4%.
As Channel NewsAsia reports, citing Reuters, the IEA links the revision to the lack of progress in ending the war in Iran. According to the agency's assessment, this delays the restoration of normal oil flows from the Middle East until 2027.
Oil inventories are declining
Due to the supply deficit, global oil inventories are declining at record rates. In August, they fell by 3.1 million barrels per day, the IEA said in its monthly report. The agency stressed that inventories had so far played a key role in balancing the market.
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The IEA also indicated that the global refining system is operating at the limit of its capacity and reserves are declining. The agency called for progress in resolving the conflict in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine, which, according to the report, is in its fifth year.
Fuel prices are rising
Intensified attacks on oil tankers along Middle Eastern sea routes contributed to oil prices rising to nearly $110 per barrel this week, for the first time since May. At the same time, prices for diesel fuel and other types of fuel reached record levels.
Global oil demand in 2026, according to the IEA's new forecast, will decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day. The previous estimate envisaged a decline of 1.6 million barrels per day. Record-high fuel prices were named as one of the reasons for the revision.
