Silence from Riyadh and Moscow increases uncertainty in the oil market — OilPrice

OilPrice writes that Saudi Arabia and Russia, which UA.News designates as an aggressor state, are not demonstrating public joint leadership amid risks to oil supplies. According to the publication, restrained signals from Riyadh and Moscow may increase uncertainty in the oil market and undermine confidence in OPEC+'s ability to influence it.

Target production levels

On September 6, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided to maintain September's target production levels in October. The group's next meeting was scheduled for October 4.

According to OilPrice, the alliance's public response to military, infrastructure, and maritime risks has been limited to brief virtual meetings, technical communiqués, and statements about market stability and full compliance with agreements. The author believes that OPEC+ is finding it increasingly difficult to turn its announced production policy into real control over the market, although the group retains significant reserves, production capacity, and spare capacity.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

Logistical risks and quotas

The publication notes that in 2026, OPEC+ raised target production levels while simultaneously unwinding voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day introduced in 2023. At the same time, actual production by some participants lagged behind planned volumes due to wars, sanctions, infrastructure damage, and export restrictions.

OilPrice also draws attention to logistics problems. According to the publication's assessment, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined, Saudi Arabia rerouted oil after attacks on the East-West pipeline, and transshipment operations near Fujairah and Oman came under pressure. This may constrain supplies even when additional production volumes are available.

Among the internal contradictions, the author cites the UAE's exit from OPEC+ in May, Iraq's desire to obtain a higher quota, and upcoming negotiations on baseline production levels for 2027. According to OilPrice, the alliance may either preserve its broad political format, narrow decision-making to several of the largest producers, or increase transparency of data on actual capacity and quota compliance.