Alaska LNG could theoretically cost up to $109 billion — Korea Herald

In the United States, the cost of implementing the Alaska LNG gas project, which the developer estimates at $44.5–54.5 billion, could theoretically reach $89–109 billion under a certain scenario. This was reported by Korea Herald, citing a report by energy consulting company GaffneyCline for the Alaska Senate Natural Resources Committee.

Early-stage estimates

GaffneyCline concluded that the Alaska LNG cost estimate belongs to Class 5 — the least detailed and most uncertain category in the five-level cost-estimating system. According to the Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering classification, the typical accuracy range for such estimates is from -20% to -50% on the downside and from +30% to +100% on the upside.

Applying the upper end of this range to Glenfarne Group's $44.5–54.5 billion estimate produces a theoretical total of $89 billion to $109 billion. At the same time, the report emphasizes that this range reflects the general uncertainty of early project estimates rather than a specific forecast of cost overruns for Alaska LNG. It is also unclear whether Glenfarne Group's estimates belong to the same class.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

Infrastructure and financing

The consultants analyzed publicly available information rather than a complete set of current engineering and project documentation. The report states that capital expenditures on infrastructure account for 84% of the total cost of supply. The project includes a gas pipeline about 1,300 kilometers long, gas processing facilities, and a liquefaction plant in Nikiski in southern Alaska.

GaffneyCline concluded that more detailed engineering, more reliable cost estimates, and a comprehensive financing structure are needed before the project reaches a final investment decision. Washington includes Alaska LNG among projects covered by South Korea's broader commitment to invest $350 billion in the United States under a bilateral trade agreement. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Seoul to join the development, but the South Korean government says there is no final investment decision and that participation will depend on commercial viability and national legal requirements.