IMF warns global economy could test the limits of resilience — The Guardian

The International Monetary Fund in Bangkok, Thailand, warned that the global economy could approach the limits of its resilience due to the depletion of emergency oil reserves and limited capacity of government budgets. This is stated in the new World Economic Outlook forecast, The Guardian reports.

The IMF noted that over the past six months, the global economy has withstood the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East better than expected. Rerouting supplies around the Strait of Hormuz and releasing strategic energy reserves helped mitigate the impact on oil prices.

Oil reserves and budget buffers

At the same time, the fund indicated that emergency oil reserves are being depleted, while high public debt and deficits in many countries could limit governments' ability to protect consumers in the event of another price spike. The IMF called for strengthening supply capacity and rebuilding economic policy buffers.

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In March, the International Energy Agency announced the largest emergency release of oil reserves in history. According to the publication, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve recently fell to its lowest level since 1982.

Growth and inflation forecasts

The IMF slightly raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, compared with 3% in its July update. The forecast for 2027 was left unchanged at 3.4%. For the United States, the fund maintained its 2026 growth forecast at 2.3% and raised its 2027 estimate from 2.2% to 2.3%.

According to the IMF's assessment, risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. Among the threats, the fund cited a possible escalation in the Middle East, disruptions to energy infrastructure, cyberattacks, and extreme weather events. Global inflation is projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 and decline to 4.1% in 2027.